The political machine that dominated Pierre for a generation just broke. Aberdeen multi-millionaire car dealer Toby Doeden and incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden are headed to a July 28 runoff election after a stunning primary night that completely upended South Dakota politics. Representative Dusty Johnson, widely considered the institutional favorite to succeed Kristi Noem, was decisively rejected by his own party, finishing a shocking third. By failing to clear the 35% threshold required to secure the nomination outright, Doeden and Rhoden have thrust the state into an eight-week ideological civil war that will decide if South Dakota remains governed by traditional agrarian conservatives or falls to an aggressive wave of populist outsiders.
This is no longer a standard primary. It is a referendum on the very identity of the South Dakota Republican Party.
The Night the Establishment Collapsed
For months, smart money in South Dakota politics sat comfortably behind Dusty Johnson. He had the highest name recognition, a massive war chest that doubled Doeden’s fundraising, and a reputation as a highly effective policy technician. Yet when the final precincts reported, Johnson sat at a dismal 23%, trailing both a political newcomer and a low-profile accidental governor.
What the donor class missed was a profound, burning resentment among grassroots primary voters toward the institutional status quo.
Toby Doeden capitalized on this anger, capturing 31% of the vote by running an unapologetic outsider campaign funded by $4 million of his own money. Doeden, who explicitly points to the July 2024 assassination attempt on Donald Trump as his catalyst for entering politics, did not run as a legislator. He ran as a wrecking ball. His rhetoric targeted what he characterizes as runaway state spending in Pierre, arguing that the state budget expansion over the last decade has actively harmed working-class families.
On the other side stands Larry Rhoden, who squeaked into the runoff with 25% of the vote. Rhoden is a West River rancher and long-time legislator who ascended to the governor's mansion in January 2025 after Kristi Noem resigned to become the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security. Rhoden represents the old guard. He is a steady, predictable hand who prides himself on institutional knowledge, agricultural advocacy, and the deliberate mechanics of state governance.
The Math and the Myth of the Property Tax
Doeden’s surge was propelled primarily by a single, radical policy promise: the complete elimination of owner-occupied property taxes. It is a brilliant populist message in a state dealing with high cost-of-living anxieties. However, the policy mechanics remain highly controversial.
Property taxes in South Dakota do not fund the state government; they fund local school districts, county roads, and municipal emergency services. Eliminating them creates a multi-billion-dollar crater in local budgets.
To make his plan work, Doeden would have to force the state legislature to drastically increase the state sales tax or completely overhaul how public education is funded from Pierre. Critics, including Rhoden, argue this is a mathematical fantasy that would ultimately result in a massive centralization of power, stripping local school boards of their autonomy.
Rhoden has countered by pointing to his actual record. During his short tenure as governor, he signed targeted legislation aimed at easing homeowner property tax burdens and focused on stabilizing infrastructure, such as resolving stalled plans for a new state men's prison.
The runoff will force voters to choose between these two distinct approaches:
- The Doeden Doctrine: Blow up the current tax structure entirely and force the system to adjust, regardless of the institutional friction.
- The Rhoden Realism: Utilize targeted legislative adjustments and incremental relief to protect local control and state fiscal balance.
Money Failed to Buy Clarity
The primary results shattered the myth that campaigns are won strictly on the balance sheet. Despite Johnson outspending the field, and despite Speaker Jon Hansen pulling a significant 21% of the theological populist vote on a shoestring budget, the voters chose a fractured path forward.
Now, the math shifts dramatically.
To win the July 28 runoff, either candidate must secure a simple majority. The immediate question is where the remaining 44% of the electorate—the voters who backed Johnson and Hansen—will migrate.
GOP Primary Results Snapshot:
1. Toby Doeden: 31% (Runoff)
2. Larry Rhoden: 25% (Runoff)
3. Dusty Johnson: 23% (Eliminated)
4. Jon Hansen: 21% (Eliminated)
The establishment will almost certainly try to consolidate behind Rhoden. He is a known quantity. He won't fire state agency heads on a whim or pick public fights with the legislature. For institutional Republicans, Rhoden is the firewall keeping the state government predictable.
But Doeden has the momentum and a direct line to the populist energy currently defining the national GOP. He can easily court Hansen’s deeply conservative, anti-establishment base by framing Rhoden as a continuation of the Pierre bureaucracy. If Doeden successfully positions himself as the only true conservative change agent left in the race, the establishment's firewall will crumble.
Eight Weeks of Friction
South Dakota faces two months of intense political saturation. The state’s traditional political calendar has been disrupted, and the summer months will be dominated by aggressive ad buys and localized organizing.
Rhoden must convince voters that experience matters, that running a multi-billion-dollar state budget requires more than business acumen, and that his West River rancher roots align with South Dakota values. Doeden will counter by leaning heavily into his self-made outsider persona, reminding voters that he doesn't owe anything to the lobbyists or political insiders in Pierre.
The primary proved that South Dakota Republicans are no longer content with the corporate, predictable conservatism of the past. The state party is angry, divided, and hungry for a fight. Come late July, the voters will decide whether they want a steady hand to guide them through the transition or an outsider to tear down the house and rebuild it from scratch.
