Donald Trump prides himself on being the ultimate dealmaker. During his first term in the White House, he viewed global politics through a transactional lens, treating long-standing alliances like business negotiations. Beijing understood this perfectly. While the media focused on the fiery rhetoric of the US-China trade war, Chinese diplomats were quietly working behind the scenes to exploit Trump's transactional nature. They didn't just counter his moves. They actively managed him, specifically targeting the steady flow of US weapon shipments to Taipei.
Beijing successfully shifted the momentum on Taiwan arms sales by speaking Trump's language. They used massive trade concessions as leverage to freeze major weapons deals, exposing a fundamental truth about Washington's foreign policy. Under Trump, decades of strategic commitments could suddenly be re-negotiated if the price was right. Also making waves in related news: Why the Rwanda Nuclear Ambition Is Leaving Western Diplomats Behind.
The Transactional President and the Taiwan Pawn
For decades, American policy toward Taiwan followed a predictable script. Washington maintained strategic ambiguity, selling defensive weapons to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 while officially recognizing Beijing. This bipartisan consensus treated Taiwan as a critical democratic outpost in the Pacific.
Then came Trump. More insights into this topic are covered by The New York Times.
He didn't care about diplomatic traditions. He saw a massive trade deficit with China and a self-governing island that bought a lot of American hardware. To Trump, Taiwan was a bargaining chip.
Chinese negotiators realized this early on. They saw that Trump viewed geopolitical issues as isolated business transactions rather than interconnected strategic values. If Washington wanted a massive trade deal to show voters in the American heartland, Beijing could offer that. But it would cost the US its momentum on regional security commitments.
This approach marked a massive shift from how Beijing previously handled American presidents. Instead of just issuing standard diplomatic protests, China began offering concrete economic incentives tied directly to American restraint.
How Beijing Frozen the F16 Deal With Agricultural Billions
The clearest example of this strategy occurred during the intense negotiations for the US-China "Phase One" trade agreement. Taiwan wanted to buy advanced F-16V fighter jets, a purchase that required White House approval. It was a multi-billion-dollar deal that Beijing desperately wanted to stop.
China didn't just threaten retaliation. They offered an alternative that appealed directly to Trump's political base.
They promised to buy up to 50 billion dollars worth of American agricultural products. Think soybeans, pork, and corn from Midwestern states. These were the exact states Trump needed to win reelection.
The strategy worked perfectly. Washington delayed the formal approval of the F-16 sale for months while the trade talks progressed. Trump openly questioned whether defending Taiwan made economic sense for the US. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton later wrote in his memoir that Trump frequently compared Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the historic Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.
Beijing used that mindset to their advantage. They showed that by dangling the prospect of massive commercial purchases, they could slow down the transfer of critical military capabilities to Taipei.
The Strategy Behind the Pause
Beijing's objective wasn't to stop every single arms sale. They knew that was impossible. Instead, they wanted to disrupt the predictability of the shipments.
By tying weapon approvals to trade milestones, China created a system where Washington hesitated. This hesitation had real real-world consequences for Taiwan's defense planning. Military modernization requires long-term planning and consistent funding. When the US pauses approvals to protect a trade deal, Taiwan's defense timelines slip.
- Delayed procurement cycles: Software upgrades and missile deliveries sat in bureaucratic limbo.
- Reduced deterrence: Beijing gained valuable time to advance its own domestic military production.
- Psychological friction: The political class in Taipei began to wonder if America was a reliable partner.
This created a template for managing Washington. Beijing proved that economic carrots could be just as effective as military sticks when dealing with a transactional American administration.
The Friction in Taipei
This economic maneuvering left Taiwan in an incredibly difficult position. Government officials in Taipei had to watch as their national security became a line item in US-China trade negotiations.
Taiwanese defense officials tried to counter this by changing their own buying habits. They started emphasizing how much money their defense spending poured into the American economy. They pointed out that buying American weapons created thousands of high-tech manufacturing jobs across Texas, Arizona, and the American South.
They tried to beat Beijing at their own game by proving that Taiwan was a lucrative customer that Washington couldn't afford to lose. But a self-governing island of 23 million people simply cannot compete with the purchasing power of a market of 1.4 billion people. When Beijing offered to buy tens of billions in agricultural goods, Taiwan's defense budget looked small by comparison.
What This Means for Future Negotiations
The lessons from that era remain highly relevant today. Beijing learned that American foreign policy isn't an immovable object. It responds to economic pressure and political incentives, especially when a leader focused on short-term wins occupies the White House.
If you are tracking geopolitical risk in East Asia, you cannot just look at military deployments. You have to watch the trade data. Look at commodity purchases, manufacturing agreements, and supply chain shifts. That's where the real deals are made.
Beijing will use this playbook again. They know that the promise of market access and massive purchasing agreements can effectively stall American security policy in the Pacific.
To counter this, Washington needs to decouple its security commitments from its trade balance sheets. Security guarantees lose their power of deterrence the moment they become negotiable. If the US wants to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, it must send a clear message that defensive partnerships aren't up for auction. Until that happens, expect Beijing to keep using its economic might to shape the military balance of power.
