The Makerfield byelection was already turning into a nasty, chaotic street fight. Now, it's a circus. Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate struggling to keep his campaign from imploding under the weight of his own internet history, just dropped a video alongside former Special Forces soldier turned TV presenter Ant Middleton. Kenyon grinned, calling Middleton one of his heroes. Middleton looked into the camera and urged voters to back Kenyon strategically.
It looks like a standard endorsement on paper. It isn't. This move tells you everything about how desperate the populist right has become as the June 18 vote approaches.
Just a short while ago, Reform UK high-ups were desperately trying to distance themselves from Middleton. Why? Because the guy kept veering into territory that even Nigel Farage’s party found too radioactive. He applauded vigilante violence in Southampton following the murder of Henry Nowak. He posted that Muslims shouldn't be allowed to run Christian nations. He explicitly stated that first, second, and third-generation immigrants should be barred from top-tier government jobs.
So why is Kenyon standing next to him now? Simple arithmetic. The right-wing vote is fracturing, and Reform is terrified.
The Threat From Within the House
You can't understand this endorsement without looking at the civil war happening on the British hard right. Reform UK isn't just fighting Labour frontrunner Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester. They’re fighting their own shadow.
Enter Restore Britain. This is the startup party launched earlier this year by Rupert Lowe, the former Reform MP who fell out spectacularly with Nigel Farage. Lowe didn't just walk away; he took a chunk of the populist base with him. Restore Britain's candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is running an aggressive campaign targeting the exact same disaffected, angry voters Kenyon needs.
An internal Labour poll leaked recently showed Restore Britain sitting on a shocking 13% of the vote in Makerfield. That same poll put Reform at 24% and Labour well ahead at 35%. If those numbers hold on polling day, Lowe’s spoiler party will completely destroy Kenyon's chances of an upset.
Middleton’s sudden arrival on the scene is a blatant attempt to plug that leak. Interestingly, Middleton’s recent online rhetoric actually aligns much closer with Restore Britain than Reform. He has actively shared Restore’s messaging on X, even cheering on their policy to deport millions by adding that an "English mayor of London will help flush them out." By getting Middleton to look into a lens and talk about voting "strategically," Kenyon is desperately begging right-wing voters not to waste their ballots on Lowe’s project.
The Vetting Nightmare and the "White Van" Strategy
If you look at Kenyon’s campaign so far, it’s been a masterclass in how not to handle a modern political run. Political parties usually scrub a candidate's internet footprint before letting them near a ballot paper. Reform clearly didn't bother, or they just didn't care.
Anti-racism groups and journalists have spent weeks unearthing Kenyon’s deleted social media accounts. The findings are grim. We aren't talking about a few edgy jokes. We're talking about a track record that includes:
- Expressing support for far-right figures and interacting with fascist organizers online.
- Describing asylum seekers as "illegal enemies" and an "invasion."
- Making deeply crude, misogynistic posts about broadcaster Carol Vorderman and female sports players.
- Declaring in an old post: "I'm sexist, sorry but I am."
- Claiming that the vast majority of women get abortions for "vanity purposes" so they can "shag anyone they want."
When the story broke, Reform’s official response was to double down. They claimed Kenyon isn't a polished, professional politician and that his comments were made before he entered public life. They essentially tried to market his lack of filter as a badge of working-class authenticity. Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor, marketed himself as the ultimate "straight-talking white van man."
But there's a massive difference between being an unpolished outsider and alienating half the electorate. A recent Survation poll conducted in the constituency found that 55% of Makerfield voters said offensive social media posts would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. Voters on the ground have told reporters they are utterly baffled by Kenyon's absolute refusal to apologize. The "never back down" rule of online culture wars doesn't translate well when you're knocking on doors in real life asking regular people for their trust.
What This Means for the Regional Battleground
Labour is watching this right-wing meltdown with quiet glee. Anna Turley, the Labour party chair, quickly weaponized the Middleton endorsement, pointing out Middleton's criminal record—he was jailed in 2013 for assaulting two police officers—and his recent 2025 ban from acting as a company director over a £1 million tax dodging scandal.
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham is capitalizing on the local mood. While Reform and Restore Britain trade insults over who is tougher on immigration, local polling shows that Makerfield residents are highly focused on public services and the cost of living. In fact, 73% of voters surveyed in the seat want water companies returned to public ownership, and 54% support a wealth tax on assets over £10 million to fund schools and hospitals. Burnham has leaned heavily into this, calling for the nationalization of Thames Water and criticizing Westminster's handling of small businesses.
Kenyon's embrace of Middleton is a massive gamble. It might mobilize a hardcore fringe of angry voters who love Middleton's brand of unfiltered nationalism, but it likely seals his fate with the moderate, undecided voters needed to actually win a constituency.
If you live in Makerfield or you're tracking this byelection, don't buy into the social media hype from either right-wing camp. Keep your eyes on the polling data and the ground game. Watch how the right-wing vote splits between Reform and Restore Britain on June 18. That split is what will dictate the final margin of victory, and it serves as a glaring warning sign for Reform's national strategy moving forward.
