Don't let the headlines about a "shattered" Tehran fool you. Despite the devastating strikes on February 28 that claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and left the country's leadership in a scramble, Iran's diplomatic core isn't walking into Islamabad with a white flag. Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi is making it clear: Tehran believes it still holds the cards that matter most.
The upcoming face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan are the highest-stakes meeting between these two nations since 1979. While Donald Trump is publicly posting that the Iranians have "no cards" left, the reality on the ground is a lot more complicated. Takht-Ravanchi's recent briefings to foreign diplomats in Tehran suggest that Iran’s "upper hand" isn't based on military parity, but on a 10-point plan designed to turn a desperate ceasefire into a permanent strategic win. Also making headlines recently: Israel and Spain Face New Diplomatic Friction After Netanyahu Effigy Incident.
The 10-Point Plan and the Hormuz Factor
If you're wondering how a country that just lost its top leader claims to have leverage, look at the map. Iran’s primary survival strategy revolves around its "stranglehold" on the Strait of Hormuz. It's the world’s most important oil chokepoint, and Tehran knows it.
Takht-Ravanchi has been blunt about the 10-point framework that the U.S. has reportedly accepted as a basis for discussion. This isn't just a list of requests; it's a defensive perimeter. The plan includes: Further information into this topic are covered by The Washington Post.
- A rock-solid U.S. commitment to end all acts of aggression.
- Guaranteed Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Full recognition of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights.
- The total lifting of primary and secondary sanctions.
Takht-Ravanchi is betting that the global economy's sensitivity to oil prices is a bigger weapon than any missile battery. By keeping the Strait as a bargaining chip, Iran is forcing the U.S. delegation—led by Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner—to treat them as an equal partner rather than a defeated insurgent group.
Why the U.S. Pressure Campaign Might Backfire
The U.S. is currently operating on the "maximum pressure" playbook, but with a kinetic twist. Trump’s "armada" in the region is meant to intimidate, yet Takht-Ravanchi warns that this kind of posturing usually backfires with the Iranian psyche. He told reporters that a "dialogue based on disinformation" or aimed at "preparing the ground for repeated aggression" simply won't work.
There's a fundamental disconnect here. Washington sees a regime on its last legs. Tehran sees a "resilient" nation that has already survived the unthinkable. Takht-Ravanchi’s rhetoric isn't just for show; it’s a signal to the Iranian public and regional proxies that the government hasn't folded. They're framing their recent missile and drone strikes as "defensive operations" that proved they can hit U.S. assets if pushed.
Honestly, the idea of "zero enrichment" is a non-starter for them. Takht-Ravanchi has labeled it a "red line." If the U.S. goes into Islamabad demanding a total nuclear shutdown without offering the "genuine agreement" Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is calling for, these talks will collapse before the first coffee break.
The Proxy War and the Lebanon Complication
One major detail often missed in the Western press is how much Lebanon and regional stability factor into these "peace" talks. Iran is refusing to separate the nuclear issue from the broader regional conflict. They've explicitly thrown the talks into doubt by demanding commitments on Lebanon.
For Tehran, the "upper hand" also comes from their ability to keep the Middle East in a state of "unpredictable response." If the U.S. strikes again, Iran has already warned that the entire region will suffer. It’s a classic "if we go down, we’re taking everyone with us" strategy. This isn't just about centrifuges anymore; it’s about whether or not the U.S. wants to get bogged down in a multi-front war that could last for a decade.
Realities of the Islamabad Summit
You're going to see a lot of theater in the coming days. Islamabad is under a total lockdown, with thousands of troops on the streets to protect the "make-or-break" summit. But keep your eyes on the specific concessions regarding sanctions.
Takht-Ravanchi has signaled that the "ball is in America's court." If the U.S. isn't willing to talk about lifting the primary sanctions that have gutted the Iranian economy, the 10-point plan is just paper. Iran's flexibility—like their offer to dilute highly enriched uranium—is a calculated move to show "goodwill" to the international community while putting the onus of failure on the Trump administration.
What to watch for next:
- The Strait of Hormuz Status: If Iran makes a move to restrict traffic during the talks, it’s a sign they feel the U.S. isn't taking their 10 points seriously.
- Sanction Relief Tiers: Watch if the U.S. offers "phased" relief. Iran has traditionally rejected this, demanding a total "all-at-once" lifting of restrictions.
- The Role of Oman and Pakistan: These intermediaries are doing the heavy lifting. Any side-meetings in Muscat will tell you more than the public press conferences in Islamabad.
The situation is incredibly volatile. While the U.S. military might have the raw power, Iran is counting on the fact that the U.S. doesn't have the stomach for a permanent war. Takht-Ravanchi is banking on that exhaustion to secure a deal that keeps the Islamic Republic—and its nuclear ambitions—alive.
